April 16, 2014 10:37 UTC

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American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

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  • American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

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From VOA Learning English, this is IN THE NEWS in Special English.
 
A new American intelligence report this week predicted Asia’s economic power rising in the coming years. The report says that by the year 2030, the United States will no longer be the superpower it is today. It says that no nation will have that kind of influence, with power instead redirected to coalitions between countries.  
 
The report comes from the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The document was researched and written by experts from outside the government. They say the findings are meant to help policymakers in their long-term planning on major issues. 
 
The report says the world will look different by 2030. The economy in Asia will be larger than that of North America and Europe combined. China will have the largest economy in the world. And the Chinese economy will be 140 percent greater than Japan’s economy. 
 
Some observers say China needs to take steps before it can become the world’s biggest economy. Patrick Chovanec is with Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He believes that several things could affect the country’s economic growth. 
 
“China’s growth is extremely resource dependent and those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer. In particular, water, in northern China, there is a growing scarcity of water, and that along with other resource constraints might limit China’s prospects of going forward.”  
 
Patrick Chovanec says the average age in China is rising because of the country’s one-child policy. He says there are concerns China will grow old before it is wealthy enough to support its growing population. 
 
The new report also says the world economy will be more dependent on the health of developing countries, instead of the West. It says there will be a higher demand on resources as the world’s population expands from seven-point-one billion today to eight billion people.
 
The report says nearly half of the population will live in areas with severe water issues. It says limited water resources and farmland could increase the risk of conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Experts are predicting that the United States could become more active in settling disputes in the future. As a mediator, America could work to prevent what the report calls violence created from insecurity in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"What the world is looking for from the United States - and it’s not the world - individual states look for protection, they look - in some cases - for the ability to organize.  I mean if you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are waiting for is for the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what's been missing has been the United States playing that role."     
 
The writers of the report say their findings are not meant to predict the future, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures. The report adds that the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together and lead international cooperation.
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by: Chien-Lan Yang from: China
01/04/2013 4:13 PM
It seems that the United States does not know China well. It is possible that China will be the largest economy, but due to the large population and limited resource, China will still be a developing country. Another severe problem is democracy, it will be a big barrier for China's future development. So China will not be the next superpower if these problems are not fixed.


by: Pavel from: Russia
01/03/2013 7:50 PM
Democracy is not essential thing for economic growth, unfortunatly.
We see a lot of examples such as democratic and poor Greece and other European countries loosing controls of their economics, on the other hand non-democratic China. But rather Africa and India than China will lead the economic world in the future, considering their growing trend in population and investments in that countries.


by: محمد اقتاش from: Turkey
12/17/2012 1:59 PM
the president minister of Turkey want to from ever woman to born 3 children for super power in middle east.


by: Pol from: France
12/17/2012 1:58 PM
and what about the european union ? It is today the largest market in the world. World economy will also depend of the capacity of european countries to built a strong union.


by: Yoshi from: Sapporo
12/17/2012 10:08 AM
I doubt China's real economic power. What are its original resouces and products for export? Does it have oil or natural gas or minerals? Rare earths are no longer its monopoly. Does it have fertile land and enough harvest of safe grains for export? Does it have original high technology in computer science? Most of what now exported from China appear the products manufactured in foreign-invested firms. It seems just offering cheeper working forces and consumers. I hear not a few foreign investers are leaving Chinese market as its wage level is rising. Furtheremore, many restrictions from government still remain which prevent foreign firms from operating free business. First of all, how will it goes when Yuan is floated like other main currencies in free marcket?


by: Lena from: Urkaine
12/16/2012 7:18 PM
Before some expert told the China will be superpower in 2050, and now this number is more earlier 2030.
I think it is possible because China has very huge human factor, especially cheap labor force. China has eastern mentality, there are: large capacity for work, obedience and respect their own culture.
In the future I think USA and China will compete that will take first place of the world economic space.


by: Manda Gingiro from: South of Osaka
12/16/2012 12:20 AM
USA is no longer No.1 and no longer police of the world. They are just struggling their poor economy like a developing country.
But I don't think China will replace the position of world dominant, because they are not democratic and only corruptions move their economy forward.


by: Rick from: Italy
12/15/2012 2:44 PM
I hope not, but If I have to align myself in the next ipotetic cold war Usa-China, I just know which side I will take up with. Obviously in the freedom side. Best regards to all and to VOA services.


by: Ming Lee from: Tainan
12/15/2012 1:24 PM
For prosperity & world peace ;Let's get U.S and China work together. Furthermore, everyone would take advantage from international cooperation.

In Response

by: George Fabian from: Mt Sinai, New York
12/16/2012 4:11 PM
It is in the worlds best interest that the US-China should work together. We live in a multipolar world. Cooperation goes so much further. Yes there will always be competition but competition towards a common good, like clean energy and climate change awareness are good things that the whole world will benefit from.


by: FRANZ from: BRAZIL
12/15/2012 11:21 AM
Economic power does not mean quality of life, and in the case of China, freedom and democracy.

In Response

by: Anonymous
01/03/2013 6:02 AM
freedom and democracy do not mean the quality of life. see the crime rate in Brazil. most of Chinese live in happiness.

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